Do You Know the Magic Number to Win at Sports Betting?

If you have been involved with sports betting for several years or just getting started I am sure you have seen companies advertising their pick services in your local newspaper, online or even on television. A lot of these ads are offering guaranteed games or claim winning rates of 80% and above. If you see these types of services, you should run in my personal opinion. I don’t care what they say, No One wins 80% – 90% of their games.

Does that mean that you can’t make money with sports betting? In short the answer is No, it is definitely possible to make substantial profits from sports betting, but you need to be realistic. If you have the proper discipline, manage your bankroll and following a winning sports betting system then creating a substantial passive income from betting on sports can be a reality. Knowing the magic # is the key.

So what is the magic #? The answer is 52.4%.If we use the most popular sports to bet on like NFL and NBA a normal bet would consist of betting against the spread with odds of 11/10 meaning that you would have to wager $110 to win back $100. What this means is that you would only have to win 52.4% of your bets to actually break even.Although hitting 80% plus winners is virtually impossible over the long haul, the good news is that anything above 52.4% will be profitable. Although winning 55% doesn’t sound that exciting, you can experience some really substantial returns each month.

Let’s use a 55% win rate and wagering on 2 games each day for this example. Here is what the results would look like after one month:

Win Rate 55%

# of Wagers 60 games (2 per day X 30 days)

# Wins 33

# Losses 27

Minus 10% Vig* 2.7

Total Wins: 3.3

*Vig is the % that the online sports books keep for accepting your wagers. Usually 10%

So what does this mean? Well with these numbers a $100 bettor would be up $330 profit after the month and a $1,000 bettor would be up $3,300. Not bad for a few minutes work each day, but let’s look at what this means in ROIpercentage (Return on Investment).

What I personally use and recommend is that if you are going to be flat betting or making the same size wager on each game then you should be using no more than 5% of your total bankroll. So if you have a total of $1,000 then you should be wager $50 per game. By sticking with the same numbers as the example above of +3.3 games this would actually be a gain of $165 and a return of 16.5% on your money in just 1 month. Compounding that over a full 12 months translates into over a 600 percent return on your money. I don’t know about you, but these are some incredible returns. Compare this to other investments like the stock market or the bank and you can clearly see that sports betting is a viable option even using a conservative example. Now imagine a 56% win rate or even 60 percentage.

Sports Betting Systems and the Psychology of a Winning Sports Bettor

If I had a nickel for every forum title I read that started out something like “Can you really make money betting sports?” I would be the richest man on the planet. Fact: If every bettor lost all the time there would be no sports betting market. It is that simple. I am a winning bettor. I don’t have to pick the paper up anymore and study statistics all day. It took some hard work to achieve this status. If you are tired of losing money and want to start making profits, keep reading.

Let me provide you with some basic statistics for the sake of the discussion. There are over 6 billion people in the world. Lets say only 3 billion are adults. Of those adults, only 10 percent bet on sports. That is 3 million people that bet sports. Of those 3 million people, only 2 percent actually make a living betting sports. The other 98 percent lose money. That leaves 60,000 people in the world who profit from betting sports for a living! These numbers are extremely conservative; it is estimated that over 200 million people ALONE will bet on the Superbowl in a given year. Not only is it possible to make a living betting sports, it happens every minute of everyday to real people just like you.

I have identified three crucial issues that keep amateur sports bettors from turning professional and turning profits in their sports betting careers.

1. The single biggest problem with those who lose money betting sports is a lack of discipline.

2. The second biggest problem is non-application of any substantial sports betting systems to keep you consistent and on target.

3. The third issue is thinking like the typical square bettor and not like the bookmaker.

I will address all of these fundamental betting flaws and give you a glimpse on how a winning sports bettor thinks and acts.

One of the best ways to lose your shirt over the long run is bet chasing. Scenario: You thought you had the lock of the century last evening with the first game. You lost that bet on some unbelievable nonsense, maybe a back door cover in a game that was long over for both teams. You got angry, saw the next game of the night coming up and impulsively doubled your bet for game two to cover your losses from game one. Then, since you had no real system in place to keep you in check, that game ends up a loser as well and you are now down big. Everyone has done this, and I am no exception. This is the lack of discipline I am talking about. You will lose some nights, just like your 401k will lose value some days. It comes with the territory. Bet just that one game and if it loses, cut your losses there and tomorrow is a new day.

There are tons of sports betting systems that exist, but some are very good if you have the discipline to follow them verbatim. Most sports bettors do not have the time, patience, or inclination to hypothesize, test, analyze, retest, and apply sports betting systems. This is why most sports bettors lose over the long haul. There are professionals who do have systems in place and are happy to share those systems with anyone who thinks they have what it takes to follow the system. You MUST have a system in place that keeps you on the winning path. Betting random games night in and night out without proper research is no formula for success. It is fun, but it is a money loser and that is not why you are here. You are here to become a winner. Remember, you will lose some nights. You will lose and losing is not fun. With a sports betting system in place that has been proven to win, over the course of your investment you will make money. How much you make and how often is entirely up to you applying discipline and consistency to your sports betting systems.

Think like the bookmaker. It has been said that books are only concerned with having an equal amount of bets placed on both sides of the same game. That way, with the vigorous factored into the game, the bookmakers earn a small profit regardless of who wins the game. This is a half truth. Yes, this is one way books make money. If you think that books won’t bait you into thinking a line is too good to be true, knowing that you, the general betting public, will pounce on that bet (a sucker bet or a trap bet) I have a bridge in San Francisco to sell you CHEAP. The real money for the bookmakers is in those games that are bet heavily on one side (and subsequently lost) by the general public. If a line is too good to be true it probably is. The bookmakers know the public loves the favorite. They also know more about tonight’s games than you could possibly research. They know you don’t have the discipline to stop while you are ahead (or down for that matter). They know you have no clue what sports betting systems give you an advantage. They also know that you think like an amateur bettor. This is precisely why you are not making money.

In my betting career one of the affirmations I would continuously rehearse was to never, ever think like the general betting public. Zig when others zag. It became so much more than just that but it was a start. The next thing is to trust the individuals who have paved the path before you. Put a system in place and follow it with precision and accuracy. Those sports betting systems exist and are being used every day. Over time, you will win. Winning translates into profits. Start winning and you will be able to do things in your life you couldn’t have dreamed of before. People every day are winning consistently betting sports. This should be you.

How To Make Easy Money Betting on Soccer and Other Sports Online

There is no limit to how much money you can make in online Sports Betting. Just how successful you become will depend entirely on your own little efforts.

OK! You may be one those people who loses lots of money regularly on sports betting. I’ve been there many times and from my experience it hurts so much to lose money. After many trials and errors, I stumbled upon the Key to successful betting. Am about to reveal to you this lucrative online business as the easiest and cheapest investment ever on the internet.

Sports Betting

For those just starting out. Sports betting is all about betting against bookmakers. It is quite different from betting against other people the way most people do. It is also different from pools betting. Bookmakers are betting companies that provide the platform for betting activities. They also provide the prices and expected winnings on each football match.

All you need to do is to determine the outcome of a particular match or a series of matches. You don’t need to predict the exact score line. Though there are bets where you can predict the exact score line. The price per match will be determined by how hard or difficult it is. The easier the match, the lesser the potential returns. The harder the match, the higher the potential returns.

Let use soccer (football) for illustration:

Assuming TEAM-A on top of the league table wants to play TEAM-B who are at the bottom and out of form at home, we all know there is a very high likelihood that TEAM-A would win if in good form plus all the advantages to their side. The money you are expected to win if you bet TEAM-A will beat TEAM-B will be very small in fact.

On the other hand, if you say TEAM-B will beat TEAM-A, then the expected monetary returns would be high. It will be high as well if you say it will end in a draw.

Okay. Let’s move on.

Predicting that TEAM-B, the under-dog will beat TEAM-A, the odds could be 4/1. That means that if you bet with $1 you will win $4 plus your initial $1 which makes your total earnings $5. I’ve used US dollars above as an example. Most bookies operate in Pound Sterling, dollars and Euro. So if you want to bet on it, what would you do? Start analyzing and seeing possibilities.TEAM-A to win at 2/7 simply means to win $2 you have to play with $7. You need to ask yourself is it worth risking $7 to win $2? Or will you back the weaker TEAM-B to win at 4/1? You only need to put in $1 to win an extra $4. But will TEAM-B beat the stronger TEAM-A at home? The greater the risk the greater the potential returns, the lesser the risk the lesser the potential returns. That is where your football mind and knowledge is needed.

Let’s Understand Prices/Odds more using real soccer teams for example.

Take a look at this match in the fixture and price. Lets say Chelsea F.C. to beat Manchester City at home is priced at 2/5. That is you bet with $5 to win $2. That is a total expected returns of $7.

(Always remember that the figure at the end is what you stake with and the one in front is what you will win)

The match is 11/4 for a draw and 6/1 for an away win for Manchester City. It means 1/1. You play with $1; you win an additional $1. You play with $100 you win an additional $100.

Other Kinds of Odds…

Not all odds are written in fractions. As in not written like 3/1, 1/5, 4/9 and so on. Some odds are written in decimals like 1.35, 2.42 etc. If you see 2.42, it simply means if you bet with one dollar, you will earn return of 2.42 dollars. Whatever figure is shown, it means that it is what will be returned if you place $1. So you can calculate your expected earnings according to what you want to bet on.

There are also the American Odds presented in form -110,+220,etc. The Decimal odds seem to be by far the easiest to calculate. The bookies (bookmakers) can determine what kind of odds they will be using. Actually some bookmakers allow you to choose the odd type that suits you. Whatever Odd you use the result is the Same. However, chose only Odd type you are comfortable with.

Bet Types

There are many types of bet provided by Sport books to suit your needs. The basic bet types are the 1X2 (three outcomes, Home Draw Away), the 12 (only two outcomes, Win or lose), the 1X, 2X (Win or Draw), Not Draw. Other extended betting types are Number of goals, Half/Full Time result, Odd/Even number of goals, Asian Handicap, Live or in-play betting option, exact score line, etc. While sports like boxing, tennis, etc have fewer basic betting options, soccer has the most betting option.

It’s very easy alright making unlimited cash betting on sports online. Now you are thinking: if it were so easy how come people lose money at all? Answer! Is most of the time you do guess-work; try-your-luck, inadequate or no information, etc.

But that’s no good business or investment doing guess-work. You know what it is? It’s called gambling. An investment mind-set is a vital ingredient to make money in Sports betting backed by good knowledge.To be successful punter making tons of dollars on sports betting you need reliable, tested and proven information, systems and strategies to guarantee profits and high returns.

Why you need reliable information.

Ever seen even the strongest teams on top of a league lose to under-dogs at the bottom of league table? Causing bettors to lose lots of money? Why for instance should a team like?Manchester United lose to black even when they have over 90% chance of winning? It hurts a lot lose this kind of bet.Yeah it happens. 99% of all soccer punters (bettors) THINK they know who will win the game and which team will go over or under the total and end losing almost all their bets and a lot of money, which leaves 1%. Those 1% are professionals that make a living betting on soccer and other sports.

Why? It’s because there some secrets in Sports betting that can only be unlocked with the right kind of information that gives knowledge. This is not knowledge of how the games is played but knowledge of how to make money betting on games played.

Knowledge is power in a general sense is but in sports betting the knowledge is money.

Yes, you need a system that works most times to become an investor making lot of money on sports betting. Sports betting should be seen as an investment, that way you make money most of the time. Though fun in sports betting cannot be left out for those who have passion for the games, the passion can be converted into lots of cash using proven betting systems and strategy. Football (soccer) has most systems and strategies because it offers more betting options than any other sports.

How to Make the Money.

One way, is to do it yourself by applying proven systems and strategies. Another is to get others to work for you through professional Tips service. However there are free and paid professional Tips service to give you betting clues and predictions.

The SECRET of this lucrative online business is information. With the right information you are sure to become super RICH from this easiest and cheapest investment online anyone from 18 years old can make. That is the legal age for gambling in most countries that regulate top Rated Sport books or Bookmakers. Some reputable sports books require IDs to confirm the age compliance among other things.

GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. BET ONLY THE MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE!

Contact: [email protected]

Sports Betting Money Management Secret

It can be extremely dangerous to bet out of control. Take my word for it, do not learn this lesson through experience.

Here is the #1 Law of money management: Never Gamble With Money That You Cannot Afford To Lose.

Successful sports bettors all have at least this in common – they know how to properly manage their money. Superior handicapping/betting skills alone do not make one a winning player. To win, you must want to win bad enough so that you will be careful enough not to give your money back to the bookies.

This is a very important concept. Once you have won money from a bookie or sports book, that money is yours. Keep it that way. Subconsciously, the bettors that think of the money as not belonging to them tend to give it back immediately.

So start training yourself to think of the money as yours as soon as it has been won – because IT IS YOURS! Now you will not be so quick to give it back.

Also, do not gamble with needed funds no matter how “sure” the bet may seem at the time. The possibility of loss is always very real. And by loss I mean financially and emotionally. Gambling with money that is necessary for something else is a sure fire way to get yourself all emotional about it. And then who knows how desperate you will get.

Playing under escalated anxiety not only ruins all the fun and stresses you the hell out, but it also probably destroys your ability to make sound decisions and win your bets! That’s right. Bets made under duress and usually bad bets. So play the game strategically so that is easy for you not to get emotional.

Sports Betting Through Expert Soccer Tips

Soccer is one of those games which are played all over the world. It is the most played games all across the globe and is one of those games about which people are real crazy. Especially in Americas, Europe and Africa the soccer craze is at its peak. In Brazil people do not demand three meals but they demand two meals plus one soccer time. Apart from the fact of people enjoy playing soccer or watching soccer on TV or in the stadium, they also like to earn some monetary benefit from the game.

There can be different ways through which one can use soccer or other sports for their benefit but sports betting is one of the most common activities that is also practice at a very large scale. This is because of the fact that betting is a trick and once people get adapted to it then it is easy money. This is the reason that a large number of people all over the world are associated with soccer betting as it is the most played game all across the continents. There are many bookies all over the world that arrange soccer betting and are very good at giving soccer tips for soccer sports betting.

Today the world is very fast and people have very less time for things even what they think are important to them that is the reason that they try to find platforms where they can find their job done in a very cost effective and result oriented manner consuming as minimum time span as possible. There are many online books available today where people can find soccer experts and sports betting experts to get expert soccer tips that will make their betting a success and bring them a lot of money.

Soccer experts and betting experts are also very important in the process of betting as they give quality expert opinion regarding the sport as well as the betting dynamics. A soccer expert is the person who is very well trained as far as the game is concerned. He looks into the dynamics of sports and has a thorough knowledge of the game, players and the teams as well. He predicts about the performance of the players and teams in given conditions and circumstances of the match. The place where the game is being played as well as the rankings of players and teams also helps in predicting results for betting. Along with this a betting expert also gives quality betting and soccer tips as per his vast experience which he has gained from the game.

One should consult these online betting platforms where they can find quality opinion about their betting needs.

What is a Circled Game Mean in a Sports Betting Event?

Visitors to Las Vegas or online sportsbooks may come across some games on the betting board that will have special rules attached in the betting. Such games will be circled on the betting board. A red box means that the line is “circled” and subject to reduced betting limits.

Often time’s sportsbooks will circle games on the betting board due to injuries to impact players. NFL teams competing on Sunday’s must submit their injury reports on Friday and provide updates on Saturday. In recent years the NFL adopted a rule forcing teams to disclose on Wednesday through Friday who missed practice and who had limited work during practice. The best practice for sports betting professionals would be to browse individual team websites that post the injury and practice information about the health of their players.

The injury reports have been very accurate in recent years because the NFL wants to protect the integrity of the league because inside information on injuries could be exploited. So teams have been very forthcoming about the health of their players. Injuries to impact players like the starting quarterback, running back and impact wide receivers will cause Las Vegas and online sportsbook to circle the game on the sports betting board until their status come game time is determined. Sharp sports bettors follow the best practice of shopping individual sports books to shop for the odds that are best set on the side they want to bet on.

Sometimes Las Vegas or online sportsbooks may miss important injury information on teams and a smart bettor may bet into a good betting number that favors the bettor. Professional gamblers look for knee, foot and ankle injuries to running backs. A running back who is not 100% healthy and playing with ankle, foot or knee injuries will see their average yards per carry often fall well below their average. This puts the offense in second and third and long situations or what is known as obvious passing situations. Defenses who know the pass is coming can adjust into pass coverage creating less space for the wide receivers to run routes making a pass completion by the quarterback much more difficult which raises the possibility of a turnover. With a capable back up running back it is often better for a team to not play a running back that sports ankle, knee or foot injuries. Many professional sports bettors will look to play against a team who is starting an impact running back who is playing with an ankle, foot or knee injury.

If inclement weather is forecasted for the site of an outdoor game a sportsbook will circle the game and bettors will have betting limits reduced on the game up until about an hour until game time. Wind can factor greatly in the passing game and the best practice for professional sports bettors will look to play under in college and pro football if the betting line has not already been bet down. There are times when the professional has the inclement weather information before the Las Vegas or online sportsbook and this is a scenario when they make advantage bets.

Many sports bettors will find NBA games circled on the Las Vegas or online sports betting board. Often times an NBA team will report a mild ailment from a player in their rotation and list them as questionable or doubtful. Smart betting professionals will tune into NBA team’s pregame show 30 minutes prior to the start of the game to get specific injury information about teams impact players on their rotation. In the NBA if an impact player is lost to injury the replacement player will often step up and the team will have point spread success in the first game the team plays without their impact player in the lineup.

A line may be circled when factors other than game play (e.g., injuries or weather conditions) could affect the outcome of the game. As many bookmakers don’t have enough information on the game and can’t accurately balance the action as it comes in, circled lines can’t be added to a parlay. Some online or Las Vegas sportsbooks may have too much action on one side of the game and even with a line move they cant attract action on the other team. Most sportsbook business models are set to attempt to balance trade on all games and protect their bottom line. Most sportsbooks try to attempt to have all of their lines un-circled. The red box may be removed closer to the start of the game.

Use the Internet For Online Sports Betting and Make Profits While Staying at Your Workstation

There are many types of sports that offer its bettors to invest their monies in betting. Some of the sports are baseball, basketball, soccer (football), college football, golf, etc to mention a few. The bettors are encouraged to place their bets based on various factors, like predicting the winner or various place positions, the points or goals in the game, and even the individual performance of the players involved in the game. Nowadays, with the technological advancements such as internet, you can become a bettor and place your choice of bets online itself. Your profits out of betting are just a few clicks away. Learn more to make use of the technologies available at your service.

  • Internet is an information superhighway, which provides its audience with all the information required. You can find the details of different games, their rules and regulations, various tournaments held and their calendars. You are also provided with the intricate details of the statistics of the several tourneys, teams involved and the key players. This information can guide you in deciding the possible outcomes of each game.
  • The odds are the magical numbers that give you an idea of who are the favorites and the amount of risk. When the odds of a team has 1:20 whereas the other team has 1:10, then the former has lesser chances of winning as you would earn 20 times more if you place your bet on them and if they eventually win.
  • There are many bookies and books (formal organization of many bookies) available on the internet that feed you with an overdose of free offers and many goodies. By choosing the right book, you can avail these ancillary benefits apart from making profits regularly.

The Hidden Secret Behind Sports Betting Success!

Why Money Management is so important

To consistently make profits over a long period of time in sports betting, you must not only make the right bets, but you also have to use your bankroll and keep control of your emotions. There is a tendency for people to ride a winning streak too hard and bet too much hoping to hit a super big payday. I have done it many times before I learned proper bankroll management.

Also, there is a tendency for gamblers to bet wildly amidst a losing streak to attempt to make a one bet comeback. This has spelled the death of many sports bettors that would have otherwise been on the path to profits. Improper money management can turn wins into losses and moderate losses into nightmares.

Both winning and losing streaks are a very real part of gambling. It is how you deal with these ups and downs that will determine just how well you’ll do at the end of the day.

That is precisely why money management is so critically important. When you are on a winning streak, you have to stretch those winnings to the maximum, but still safe level and make sure that you are a winner. And when things go the other direction, you must restrict losses to affordable amounts.

Money management takes a lot of discipline and for some people it probably takes some of the fun out of it too. But those are the people that must get a kick out of giving a lot of money to the sports books. Sports

Betting is very similar to investing in stocks or other financials in the way that money management can make or break the investor.

Illegal Sports Gambling Is Big Business! Will It Finally Become Legal? Supreme Court to Decide

No matter what sports season we’re in, you probably have a favorite sport you relish following. Maybe March madness college basketball, the NFL, baseball, hockey, golf, or soccer. Perhaps you would like to make a little bet, but many sports fans in the United States are leery of the legitimacy and legality of internet gambling. If you live in the United States, your legal sports betting options at brick and mortar casinos are limited to Nevada, and to some degree at Delaware racetracks.

The Supreme Court has heard arguments on a New Jersey challenge which would permit sports gambling at its casinos and racetracks. If the court rules in favor of New Jersey, Gaming experts predict that most states will jump on the bandwagon to legalization, in order to fill state coffers with tax revenue.

If you’re unfamiliar with the particulars of how to bet on sports, the following describes how it all works:

Sports Betting Jargon

Before we get into the specifics, here’s a little jargon explanation to help you understand the process:

  • Action – A term for all the betting activity that happens during an event.
  • Handle – The total amount of money wagered on events.
  • Spread – Giving one of the two teams points to even out the betting action.
  • Sports Books – Establishments that take bets on sporting events.
  • Juice – A percentage of the win taken from a bettor that won an even money bet. Sometimes called the vig, which is short for vigorish.

Types of Bets

There are many different types of bets. By far, football draws the most action with the biggest handle. The Super Bowl alone draws over $100 million in legal betting activity, and over three billion (that’s billion with a B!) illegal wagers. Now you see why states want a piece of the action.

  • Even Money Bets – Players betting on only one team to beat another. The sports book takes the juice/vig from the winning payout amount. A common vig is $11 for $10. (Bettor wages $11, wins $10.) House keeps $1. Most bets will have a point spread (line). If the player is picking the underdog, S/he will take points. If the bettor is picking the favorite, S/he is laying (giving) points.
  • Parlay Bets – Betting on multiple (two or more) teams to win. Here’s a scenario on a point spread ticket. Let’s assume that on event #1, Tampa Bay is playing at Green Bay with GB favored to win by at least 3 points. In event #2, Buffalo is playing at Miami and BUF is expected to win by at least 7 points. Your game ticket would look something like this:

Event Visitor Vs Home

1. TB GB. -3

2 BUF. -7 MIA

This means that if you bet on GB they must win by more than 3 points. A bet on BUF would require them to win by more than 7 points. By choosing the favorites you are laying (giving) points. If you were to put your money on GB and MIA, you would be taking (receiving) the points.

One way to eliminate confusion is to jot down a spread score before the games start. for example on this ticket:

The score before the game starts is:

  1. TB 3 GB 0
  2. MIA 7 BUF 0

When the games are over just give the points to the underdogs. In most jurisdictions, ties lose for the player. In other jurisdictions the prize payout for one tie is reduced to the next lowest payout factor. A common play in casinos is a four team pick for 10X the bet.Bet $10, win $100, but you can wager from two to twelve games. The more games you play, the higher the winning payouts.

  • Over/Under – One scenario is betting that the final score ill be over or under a certain number a preset number.
  • Prop Bets – A proposition bet is where you predict the outcome of a preset number of props on a single ticket. Example: Total field goals over/under 4. Total interceptions over/under 3. Total sacks over/under 2. Total receiving yards, total yards, and the list goes on and on.

If you visit Vegas or other jurisdictions that permit sports gambling, Good Luck!

Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.