The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!

In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.

Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win – but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.

If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) – to win each game – you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate – but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be ‘short’ and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter – and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value – as they are not the popular betting choice.

When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or ‘evens’ (1/1).

As an example we set up a ‘coin flipping’ betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.

Heads is now an even shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the ‘true odds’ or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.

The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the ‘average bettor’ does not really understand ‘value’, he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since ‘heads’ is winning – he wants to bet on heads.

The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 (+150 US), on tails.

At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 for an event where the ‘true odds’ of success are 1/1.

Understanding Different Types of Soccer Betting Odds

We found this amazing site which is the greatest resource for online soccer betting, providing players with all the information they need before they make a wager. The popularity of soccer betting comes from the high popularity of the sport itself. Millions of people watch soccer to either cheer on their favorite team or just to get a hand on the adrenaline of the game. The most important difference between soccer betting and other forms of gambling is that it takes some time to become profitable and start earning real money. However once you have learned some basic tips – as outlined here, you’ll be able to enjoy higher than average returns on your wagers.

The trick in soccer betting is studying past soccer games to get a feeling for what the best odds are and to be able to tell if one team is going to win or not. While this may sound like an obvious piece of advice, you’d be surprised at how many players loose site of the “big picture” when betting on soccer games.

There are also many soccer tips you can find online forums that analyze game stats. Probably one of the best soccer betting tips is to take a look at all the online sports books before making your first bet; different sports books offer different bonuses and different odds, all of which affect your bottom line as a sports bettor. Therefore, simply taking some time to choose the best odds will put you in the right track to win big. Some of the best sports books online are William Hill, Ladbrokes, 888 Sport and Bet 365.

Soccer betting odds are not as favorable when the point spread (also known as an ‘Asian handicap’ is involved. So for beginners it is recommended to start playing with straight bets. This type of betting is also known as 1X2 where 1 is the home team, 2 is the away team, and X is a tie.

Because the skill in picking a winner based on a point spread is more difficult we recommend going with 1X2 wagers as predicting which team is going to win without giving an exact amount of points is a simpler task. Other ways to get a winning start when betting on soccer is to simply bet on the home team each time. While the odds are usually lower on home teams – they outperform both tie bets and away teams by a wide margin.

To increase your chances of winning, you should first stick to games where you know both teams and can easily tell what their behavior on the field will be like. You chances for success at betting on soccer will only decrease if you are betting on unknown teams, or are chasing long shots with no realistic chance of winning only to make a big score.

Do You Know Your Luckiest Gambling Style?

Many people believe that numbers are very important if you want to attract good luck in life. Most people read their horoscopes daily. Some even know a little about Numerology and know what their Life Path number is. That’s good, but according to numerologists and other prognosticators, there’s a lot more to know about numbers and how they affect your luck.

They say that, if you’re not a lucky person, you need to learn how to put numbers to work for you. It’s not just about lucky days or whether you’re a “9” or an “8” that makes the difference between being a three-leaf clover or a four-leaf clover. It’s about applying the right style for your numbers when you do anything that depends on luck for a good outcome.

For instance, if your number is “2” and you want to win more at the horse track, why does it make sense to go with a friend, even if the friend knows nothing about playing the horses? If you’re an “8”, a very lucky number indeed, what color can make you luckier at the track and in life?

Did you know that horses and dogs have numbers too and you can take advantage of them? Even tracks and places have numbers, if you know how to figure them out. “Luckier By the Numbers” shows you how to do that and even lists many of the horse and dog tracks by number.

Read the book and find out if your favorite casino is in a “good place” for you. If it’s not, maybe there’s another one close enough to drive to, one that would be luckier for you. Is your favorite slot machine the right number for you? If it has a number, you can tell if it is or not with the help of this book.

Numbers matter. They’re all around us from our birthdays to our house number to our driver’s license to race numbers to post position. All these numbers have an influence on us, so why not choose the ones that might make your luck change for the better? Why continue to pick numbers, colors and places that work against you?

If you’re tired of losing at the track, the casino or in life, maybe it’s time to change things up. Try another approach, even if it seems a bit wacky and weird. Take control of how numbers affect your life and see if it makes a difference. If you don’t know which numbers, colors, places and gambling style might work best for you, use “Luckier By the Numbers” to find out.

Review of Josh Axelrad’s Blackjack Bio, "Repeat Until Rich"

If you can tip a waiter, you can count cards.

I believe there’s a little bit of gamble in all of us. But for some there’s a ton of gamble, along with a possible addiction. This is the road Josh Axelrad traveled in his memoir, Repeat Until Rich. While the subtitle reads, “A Professional Card Counter’s Chronicle of the Blackjack Wars”, it isn’t so much about wars as it is about small exciting battles.

Josh Axelrad left his nine-to-five job to join a group/team consisting of MIT graduates and gambling veterans. Together they formed a card counting team that would beat casinos out of hundreds of thousands of dollars per session. I’ve seen movies and read books about card counting but this was the first one that details how multiple teams attack several casinos at once.

Axelrad goes into simplistic detail on how card counting works and the different roles each team member plays. Bringing these together you see how the system must work in harmony to be successful. It also shows when one thing is out of order a lot of money can be lost quickly. While card counting isn’t illegal, casinos definitely frown upon it and take great pleasure in “politely” escorting you out. Eventually you can be barred from the casino. This is where the drama and excitement emerges as the teams have to outsmart dealers, pit bosses, and the eye in the sky (security). They develop characters and wear disguises to be able to continue playing in the biggest casinos.

There isn’t much in terms of relationships between the team members and you don’t feel any strong connection with anyone except Axelrad. The teams travel from gambling town to gambling town to run their game plans and you see the toll the road takes on them. From Atlantic City to Las Vegas to the gambling boats on the Mississippi the stress and grind wears on the team and they eventually go their separate ways.

Axelrad returns home to New York after winning over $700,000 in four years and you’d expect this is where the story would flatten out and become one of settling down. It does the opposite as Axelrad becomes addicted to online poker and ends up taking his life down a whole new road. While prosperous new doors had opened for him on his homecoming he slams them all shut to sit home and put his four years of winnings to the test. The excitement of the first half of the book gives way to desperation and depression.

Being an on/off again online poker/blackjack player myself I totally connected with his highs and some of the lows. While it’s considered a cautionary tale it also supplied plenty of excitement and some laughs. If you ever wanted to know how card counting works and actually understand how it’s applied in the casinos I’d suggest reading this book.

Call the Betting Medic – The Betting Doctor by Reed Hogben MD

Betting is one field that is always very uncertain. There are times when you would be at the top of your game, winning all the bets you place, and there are times when you lose almost all your money into the bets you lose. People say that betting is a pure game of luck.

There are theories that have proved otherwise. Betting is a science and like all sciences, has its own rules. There are times when people tend to falter from the ground rules of betting and it is at this time that they start losing. In a sense, their betting abilities have become unwell and need a doctor to resurrect them. It is at these times that The Betting Doctor by Reed Hogben M.D. comes to your rescue.

This book is a sure shot way of regaining your sports betting powers once you feel to have lost them this book is one book that you will find a good read and one which will also help you a lot. There are many different ways in which you can win at sports betting. But there are very few ways in which you can get your betting ability back once you start losing.

This book is different in its genre and is a must read for professional sports bettors who have seen better days in the past. If you want to get back to winning ways, we suggest you get this book for yourself. This book will be your guide to the myriad world of sports betting and the ways to win at it online.

The Game of Draw Poker – A Brief History

In many ways, the game epitomizes the raw bone tenacity of the American spirit that drove the western movement from the Mississippi River in the 1800’s. Life on the frontier was harsh, hazardous and full of risks – the pioneers were literally gambling on their lives each day. To both survive in the untamed west and to win at draw poker a man had to be skillful at what he did and count on lady luck to smile on him. He had to closely watch his adversaries and at times bluff his way out of a situation. The results of his actions could prove very profitable or he could lose it all, sometimes even his life. Draw poker then was a natural choice for the men of the American west who were used to risking it all.

The game was the result of an evolutionary process that started when poker was first took shape in America early in the nineteenth-century. Just when and where it was first played is subject to a continuing debate among historians, as is the game’s origins. Several postulations attribute the game’s lineage to a French game called “poque” or possibly to a German game known as “pochspiel.” British historians state that the game was a direct descendent of the English card game of “brag.” Still other researchers claim that poker evolved from a sixteen-century Persian card game called “as nas” that was played with a twenty-five-card deck containing five suites and has rules similar to five-card stud poker. Since exact documentation of poker’s early history is impossible to determine its inception will probably remain a mystery.

Poker is thought to have started in America sometime in the early 1800’s, possibly in saloons of New Orleans. From there it spread up the Mississippi and Ohio rivers by way of the commercial steam boat traffic. Then as the wagon trains and railroads pushed the frontier west, poker continued to gain popularity with the early adventurers. An English actor, Joseph Crowell, recorded seeing poker being played on the riverboats in his diary of 1829 and later in his 1844 book, Thirty Years Passed Among the Players in England and America. A reformed gambler by the name of Jonathan H. Green wrote about early poker in his book, Exposure of the Arts and Miseries of Gambling that was published in 1843. Both men described an early version of poker that was played with a twenty-card deck (A-K-Q-J-10). Each of four players was dealt five cards and bets were placed on these five original cards without discards or draws. When the betting was over the owner of the best hand won the pot – in the order of one pair, two pair, triplets, full house (one pair and a triple), and four of a kind. Due to the limits of a twenty-card deck there was only a single round of betting before the winning hand was declared and this made bluffing a much more difficult maneuver.

As the game evolved it moved to a thirty-two card deck and then eventually to the standard “French deck” of fifty-two cards. Sometime in the mid-1830’s straights and flushes were introduced as winning hands. A few years later draw poker was born and started making the rounds of gambling halls in the west. The first mention of draw poker appeared in the American edition of Bohn’s New Handbook of Games in 1850. In that same year, wild cards were introduced to poker play.

With these enhancements draw poker and another version called stud poker became the card games of choice among the soldiers on both sides of the Civil War. Originally called, “stud horse” poker, the game was played around the campfires between battles and was a close rival to draw poker in popularity. Both versions are conducive to bluffing but in stud poker, you are not allowed to draw or discard cards. Rather, some of the cards are dealt face down and some face up to the player so that everyone at the table knows a few of the cards being held by each player. Betting occurs after each new face up card is dealt and after the last face down card is dealt. The first mention of stud poker appeared in the American Hoyle of 1864.

In draw poker all the cards are dealt face down to the players and after all of the cards have been dealt there is a round of betting. Then players may discard any number of cards and receive the same amount of cards from the dealer. When all the players have completed their hands there is another round of betting before the winner is declared. Later, in 1870, jackpot poker was introduced in an attempt to prevent players with poor hands from being drawn into a pot that was impossible to win. In this version, players were required to have jacks or better to open betting. If a player did not possess the minimum to play, they were required to fold and lose their ante.

The first recorded set of rules for playing draw poker came about when Robert C. Scheneck, a United States ambassador to Great Britain, introduced the game to the members of Queen Victoria’s court at a party in 1872. Fascinated with the new game the royalty asked Scheneck to jot down the rules of the game so they could play the game after he returned to America. He obliged and his handwritten rules of play were then printed by the queen’s staff for future parties. Later, without his permission or that of the queen’s court, his set of rules were published as a small booklet and sold to the masses. Entitled, A Flowery Path to Wealth: The Game of Draw Poker as Taught to the English Aristocracy, the pamphlet was a major hit with the British people who quite often referred to the game as “Scheneck’s poker”. Scheneck, who had served as general under President Lincoln, was embarrassed by the public release of his rules that he had been assured would be used privately by queen’s court.

John W. Keller, an American, included Scheneck’s rules for draw poker in his own book, The Game of Draw Poker, published in 1887. In addition, he used a portion of a letter written by Scheneck to a political friend, Thomas L. Young; to describe how the ambassador had unwittingly became party to the publication of the first set of rules for the game.

Keller’s book provided a more detailed account of the rules and variations to the game as well as a section on progressive poker, which he described as being “The latest development of draw poker… and doubtless owes its origin to the popularity of progressive euchre.” Contrary to Keller’s comments, progressive poker never caught the attention of American gamblers and its play quickly faded from the gaming scene.

Throughout the book, Keller refers to a noted mathematician, “Dr. Pole” who provided the probability and odds for draw poker hands. At the end of the book, he summarizes Pole’s calculations in a series of probability tables, which have stood the test of time. According to Dr. Poe’s figures, there is an astounding 2,598,960 possible hands in draw poker.

Since Keller’s book was published in 1887, there have been a large number of books printed on the subject of draw poker but few have been as clear and concise on the rules and the strategy of the game. His sage advice to “Study your adversaries carefully; watch the game closely; be patient in adversity and calm in prosperity,” seems right in keeping with the old gambler’s adage of knowing “when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em.”

Poker Timeline:

1839 – English comedic actor Joseph Crowell wrote about a poker game being played on the steamboat Helen M,Gregor, bound for New Orleans. He described a game called poker being played by four players using 20 cards (A, K,Q, J, 10) with a single round of betting – highest hand won. In his book, Thirty Years Passed Among the Players in England and America (1844), Crowell said that the game had been invented by the American politician, Henry Clay. The game was based on the British game, brag.

1834 – Jonathan H. Green, a professional gambler turned reformer, wrote about the “cheating game” called poker being played on the Mississippi riverboats in his book entitled, Exposure of the Arts and Miseries of Gambling.

1836 – J. Hildreth wrote about poker in his book, Dragoon Campaigns of the Rocky Mountains.

1837 – Poker used a 52-card deck. Straights and flushes were added.

1845 – Poker was first mentioned in an American edition of Hoyle’s Games. (The gold standard for the rules of card games) by Henry F. Anners.

1850 – First mention of draw poker in the American edition of Bohn’s New Handbook of Games.

1850 – Wild cards introduced to poker.

1861- 1866 – During the Civil War, soldiers and others made stud and draw poker the most popular form of the game.

1864 – First mention of stud or “stud-horse” poker in the American Hoyle of 1864.

1872 – Robert C. Scheneck, U.S. minister to Great Britain, introduced the game of draw poker to the members of the court of Queen Victoria at a royal party. He was asked to write down the rules of the game and eventually this was turned into a small booklet. The booklet was published without his permission and called, A Flowery Path to Wealth: The Game of Draw poker as Taught to the English Aristocracy. Scheneck had been an army general under President Lincoln.

1870 – Jackpot poker (jacks or better to open) introduced to prevent players with a poor hand from being drawn into an impossible to win pot.

1875 – The joker (a European invention) was introduced to the game as a wild card.

The Best NFL Betting Picks and Football Predictions to Finally Start Winning

NFL football betting picks and predictions are a huge market with few consistent winners.

NFL sports betting is one of the most popular betting medians online today. Anyone who enjoys watching football or the NFL loves to wager on a game to make it more exciting. However with such a huge following and so much money in one of the richest games on the planet, more and more people want to get a piece of the pie.

90% of people who bet on football loose over time, it’s statistics that keep bookies and sports books running at a profit. However there is a small group of people who consistently profit from betting on this game.

The small percentage that do consistently profit are professional gamblers that either really know their football or follow a proven system. Both professionals have flaws in their methods but both need sound money management systems to stay profitable over time.

Knowing where to get your tips, picks and predictions can be difficult because so many people over advice. Most sports books even offer free NFL betting picks, because they know the odds are on their side over the long term.

Paying for NFL betting predictions can be expensive if it is on a recurring basis, and you would have to consistently wager every game to get your money back. It can also take a long time to test different sources and find a viable expert, due to the fact you can’t make an opinion off only a few picks.

Being a successful online business owner I decided to test this market, and built a team to study the formulas, strategies, picks and predictions available, to see if someone of limited knowledge could consistently profit over time.

Our studies found the price of recurring products to be a major problem with beginners of limited funds, due to the increased pressure. We also found that the best picks came from people who understand the game while still using a system or formula to put the odds in their favour.

The Best picks we found came free with the purchase of a proven system, meaning there is no ongoing cost or recurring fees putting pressure on the beginner.

The Best Free NFL betting predictions came from an online sports book called “Bet US” however they are not a viable long term solution, and are more for the hobbyist gambler or sports enthusiast.

The Lotto Black Book – The Best Buy You’ll Ever Make

Everyone will tell you that the lottery borders on neigh impossible. People will quote odds and numbers such as 1 in more than 2 billion winning rates. It makes that lottery ticket in your hand seem quite heavy. “The Lotto Black Book” will lighten that load and then some! The author of the book is Larry Blair (this is a pseudonym he uses in order to protect himself and his family) is a Math professor from Oklahoma and, after years of research into winning lottery number patterns, has developed a formula to predict the most likely numbers that will come out on the present draw.

The Lotto Black Book will show you how to take Blair’s system and use it the lotteries you enter. With a little research about past winning numbers, you can increase your chances of winning the lottery up to 48.7%! This takes your chances out of the 1 in 2 billion range to an almost 50-50 proposition. After all those losing ticket, you will get a crack at infinitely better odds of winning. You may not win 100% of the time, but you have 48.6999999% advantage on everyone else. If you win about a little less than half the time, you earnings would be through the roof!

While the formula is very powerful, it does not offer a solid guarantee. Larry Blair, however, offers one. If his formula does not work for you after 8 weeks of strict adherence to his methods, he will pay you back double the money. This is a guarantee that only someone who knows his system will work can make. Let the Lotto Black Book change that lottery luck and make you a winner for a change. The very least that will happen is that you double your money from the guarantee. Find out more about Larry Blair and his Lotto Black Book.

Poker Book Report Wars: Arnold Snyder Challenges David Sklansky

Arnold Snyder is not new to gambling, but he is a new writing force in the world of poker. Having recently written a ground breaking tournament poker manual, he has ignited a debate of old school verses new school, aggression versus conceding, and blunt force betting verses the fear of losing. With the publication of The Poker Tournament Formula, Snyder has captured a loyal and expanding audience of strategy-hungry tournament players that contribute to Snyder’s online forum like packs of wolves, frequently taking frisky bites at the old school tournament thinkers.

Collectively, those thinkers are represented (at least ideologically) by David Sklansky the resident professor and writer of Tournament Poker for Advanced Players. This book, now several years since its first publication, and before the boom, put into motion the tight-early and tight-aggressive strategy that simply made common sense of hold’em tournaments. This strategy is guided in nature by the Gap Concept described in Sklansky’s book as “you need a better hand to play against someone who has already opened the betting, than you would need to open yourself”. Even modern superstar writers like Dan Harrington and Phil Gordon use this in their strategies as well, so you know it has to have some merit. As such, it is not unusual to find that squeaky, tight-aggressive player at numerous final tables that has got enough playable cards during the tournament to have survived to the final table.

Survived is the key word here, as he (insert any Sklansky drone) is rarely among the chip leaders. Further, rarely does the player return to a final table, because the basic tight strategy of relying on enough quality hands also has to be fused with having them actually win pots, and hold up throughout the tournament. As Snyder points out with much experience, it is those “quality” hands he gets kicked out of tournaments playing, as opposed to position plays with weak holdings.

Where Snyder feels The Gap is a completely misguided concept is in the smaller buy-in tournaments that many players participate daily, in local casinos, regional events and online poker sites. Snyder feels that this is a lucrative segment, as many players may never have a bankroll big enough for $10,000 and $15,000 entry fees for the WPT and WSOP. However, if you play these smaller tourneys the way Snyder plays them, you will soon enough be able to pay for a $10,000 entry fee!

Snyder breaks these smaller tournaments down, and categorizes them into a skill level based on the chip and blind structure combined with the amount of entries. Depending on the skill level and patience factor of the tournament, your strategy is going to be radically different than anything Sklansky would recommend. The underlining of that strategy is based largely on position play, and pressuring your opponents, who have likely missed the flop as much as you have. This is executed in spite of your hole cards, not because of them. Snyder’s wolves say this strategy works it sheer numbers in large part because of the Sklansky type tournament opponents who know nothing more than to fold out of position or out of flop weakness.

Both writers have forums and both have supporters, and it is interesting to hear some of the challenges put forth from the Snyder Wolves – “specific mistakes in Sklansky’s and Malmuth’s advice”, “I’ve been giving a lot of thought to the “Gap Concept” and why it’s wrong.”, “Waiting for Sklansky to speak”, ” The burden of proof was Sklansky’s, and all he did was add to his errors”, “Sklansky’s “proof” is a perfect example of his incompetence at poker logic” and on and on. This is juicy stuff!

All I can say is, between the two of them, someone has got to know what is going on here! All we want to know is how to win a bloody tournament! It seems to me that elements of both strategies are needed to win tournaments. Take a look at players like Daniel Negreneau, Erick Lindgren, Gus Hansen, Greg Raymer or Gavin Smith. They have often made some amazing lay downs to aggressive opponents, but I more often see them playing stuff like QJos, 57s, KTs and even more rubbish hands to not just one raiser, but two! These guys truly understand, like Arnold Snyder, that if you laid down like Sklansky does, you are just not going to see many final tables. By the way, have you seen David Sklansky at a final table recently?

All of the above tournament players, who are definitely more tuned into Snyder’s slant have won big, and won often. Yes, I want some of that.

Best Online Sports Betting Sites for Your Reference

It is hard to find a safe and trusted site where you can do online sports betting. In order to find one, you need further research. Here are the top five of the best online sports betting sites that you can try.

Bet365.com is one of the most establish and oldest site that offers a sociable interface layout for online bettors. They started since the year of 1974. It is an outstanding sports-book for those gamblers who played online that likes the choices and selections of different online sports betting. It is secure to play in this website. They also offer almost everything like greyhound racing to handball and dart tournaments.

Another online site is called Bodog.com. It is one of the very first online sports betting website. They built the website for the principle of security, professionalism and also for enjoyment that’s why they always ranked as one of the best sports betting site. They started since the year 1995.

BetCris.com is also one of the top five which you can visit because they offer specialized action and plenty of betting selections for European gambling public. They started at the year of 1985.

Another one of the best online betting sites is the BetJamaica.com. They offer online sport bettors a sports book that has professional management. They have a strong, trustworthy sports book with excellent funds and have good software in order for the customer to have secure betting. They also have an excellent customer service that’s why they are one of the best sports betting site. BetJamaica.com started since the year 2003.

Last but one of the top 5 best is the BookMaker.com. it is the sister company of the BetCris.com. They are one of the most well-known and the suggested gambling site online. They offer substantial bonuses and it has no upfront fees.

BookMakers.com also covers a wide range of online gaming selections everything from racing events and sports. They also offer online casino games that allow the costumer to play with other players. You don’t have to worry about the safety of your winnings and betting because they have safe methods in depositing and withdrawing your money. They started since the year 1996.

Remember, always try to read up the necessary information before you bet, and see the odds given by various websites for the same game to get the best leverage.